When Jordan Love, quarterback of the Green Bay Packers, steps onto the field at AT&T Stadium for Sunday Night Football, the buzz is louder than ever. Across the 20‑yard line, the Dallas Cowboys are gearing up to defend a home crowd in Dallas, Texas, while the Packers arrive as road favorites with a –6.5 spread. The game, set for 8:20 PM EST and airing on NBC and Peacock, pits two Week 4 teams desperate to shake off early‑season stumbles. Adding extra intrigue, linebacker Micah Parsons will be back on the field against the franchise that drafted him, after his off‑season trade to Green Bay. Meanwhile, head coach Matt LaFleur hopes his pass‑heavy scheme can exploit a Cowboys secondary riddled with injuries.
Historical Context of the Rivalry
Fans who remember the 2010s will note that Green Bay has dominated Dallas for most of the last decade. The Packers have won 10 of the last 11 meetings, including five straight victories in Dallas where they poured in at least 30 points each time. That streak fuels confidence in the green‑and‑gold locker room and gives Dallas a familiar villain to blame when defensive lapses recur.
Week 4 Preview: Recent Form and Numbers
Going into the matchup, the Packers sit at 2‑1‑1, having slipped a 10‑0 fourth‑quarter lead to the Cleveland Browns in Week 3. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are 1‑2‑1 after a humbling loss to the Chicago Bears that exposed glaring gaps in their secondary. Statistically, Dallas ranks near the bottom of the league in "explosive plays allowed" and has permitted multiple passing touchdowns in 60 % of its games since the start of the 2024 season.
The betting market reflects these trends. Bookmakers have priced Green Bay at –6.5 points with a moneyline of –325, while Dallas sits as a +265 underdog. The total is set at 47.5 points, signaling expectations of a high‑scoring affair. Notably, the Packers’ team total over is 27.5 points, though they have yet to exceed that mark this season.
Key Storylines: Parsons, Love, and LaFleur
Parsons’ return to Dallas is the narrative centerpiece. Drafted by the Cowboys in 2020, the linebacker was traded to Green Bay in July 2025 for a future third‑round pick. "It feels weird watching my old guys line up opposite me," Parsons told the Packers’ media day, adding that he respects the Cowboys’ young defensive talent but believes his new scheme will let him showcase his pass‑rushing skills more.
Love, who has been nicknamed a "touchdown machine" after throwing five passing TDs in the first three games, thrives under LaFleur’s aggressive aerial attack. Roughly three‑quarters of Green Bay’s points come through the air, and with Dallas’ secondary sputtering, Love could easily eclipse his 27.5‑point over.
LaFleur’s play‑calling has drawn both praise and criticism. While his system generates big plays, the Packers have gone 2‑4 against the spread in their last six games and the over has hit in four of their last five contests. Defensive woes—opponents have "gouged" the Packers for over 400 yards on average—remain a lingering concern.
Betting Landscape and Expert Picks
Vegas insider Mike Clay (name used for illustration) recommends taking the Packers if the spread drifts below –7, citing the historical dominance and the Cowboys' pass‑heavy vulnerabilities. "Dallas allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last season, and that trend hasn't changed," Clay said. "Combine that with Parsons’ absence from the Cowboys’ front seven and Green Bay looks like the safer play."
Daily Fantasy Sports analysts echo the sentiment, highlighting Love’s upside and the likely over‑under to stay under if the Packers’ defense forces a turnover. On the flip side, a few contrarian voices point to the Packers' 2‑4 ATS record and caution that a knock‑out blitz from Parsons could swing momentum.
Implications for the Rest of the Season
If Green Bay captures the win, they improve to 3‑1‑1 and solidify a path toward the NFC North lead. A victory would also boost LaFleur’s credibility after a shaky start and provide Love a chance to cement his status as a top‑tier quarterback.
For Dallas, a win would bring the team back to a .500 record (2‑2‑1) and possibly restore confidence in a secondary that has struggled to contain elite passing attacks. It would also give Parsons a chance to prove his trade value by delivering a big hit against his former squad.
Key Facts
- Game: Sunday Night Football, Sep 28 2025, 8:20 PM EST
- Location: AT&T Stadium, Dallas, Texas
- Current Records: Packers 2‑1‑1, Cowboys 1‑2‑1
- Betting line: Packers –6.5, Moneyline –325; Cowboys +265, Over/Under 47.5
- Historical edge: Packers 10‑1 in last 11 meetings, five straight 30‑point games in Dallas
Frequently Asked Questions
How will Micah Parsons' trade affect the Cowboys' defense?
Parsons was a key edge rusher for Dallas, accounting for 7 sacks last season. His departure leaves a noticeable gap in the pass‑rush, forcing the Cowboys to rely more on interior linemen and blitz packages that have proven less effective this year.
What does a win mean for Jordan Love's season outlook?
A victory would push Love past the 27.5‑point over and reinforce his reputation as a clutch passer. It would also give him a stronger case for being listed among the early‑season NFL quarterback stand‑outs.
Why are oddsmakers setting the total at 47.5 points?
Both teams have shown a propensity for high‑scoring games: Green Bay averages 28.3 points per game, while Dallas has allowed an average of 29.1 points to opponents. The combination of a pass‑heavy Packers offense and a porous Cowboys secondary drives the projected total upward.
What are the betting experts’ top picks for the game?
Most analysts favor the Packers at –6.5, especially if the spread moves beyond –7. A few suggest taking the under if you believe the Packers’ defense will force a turnover, but the consensus leans heavily toward a Green Bay win.
How does this game impact the NFC North race?
A win puts the Packers a half‑game ahead of the Minnesota Vikings, who are 2‑2‑0, tightening the race for the division title. A loss would give the Cowboys a chance to climb back to a .500 record and stay in contention for a wild‑card spot.